So I have been analysing Rondo a Capriccio by Beethoven and I reached a point where a so called "expert's" opinion and mine differ drastically. It starts at bar 57 and continues to bar 68. After the last eighth in bar 68, my opinion and their opinion as far as the analysis are the same. First I will show both my opinion and the expert's opinion as far as analysis.
As you can see, the so called expert thinks that the entire passage is in Gm. It makes for there being fewer modulations, but what previously made total sense is nonsense now. Like the vi ii V I, one of the most common chord progressions becoming i iv VII III, which is just total nonsense, even in a minor key. Also, the resolution to III diminishes the sense that you are in a minor tonality to begin with.
My way of analysing it avoids this problem by having the section from bars 57-68 be in Bb until it reaches the last eighth note of bar 68, at which point it pivots to Gm and it only makes sense in Gm.
Here is my reasoning behind analysing bars 57-68 in Bb instead of Gm:
Yes, you would expect to hear Bb major chords in a G minor piece. But in a G minor piece, if there is a resolution to III, that typically is a modulation to Bb and thus is truly a resolution to I, not III. VI and VII on the other hand can be resolved to without a sense of modulation in a minor key, just like how in a major key, you can resolve to vi without actually modulating to vi. So it just makes more sense to me for bars 57-68 to be in Bb, regardless of whether that means there is a modulation later on or not. And besides, Rondo a Capriccio has frequent modulations anyway.
Also, typically, in a minor key, III does not get inverted whatsoever. It usually is in root position. Here, if the whole passage is analyzed as being in Gm, you get all 3 inversions. There are only 2 chords(3 if you extend it to seventh chords) that typically get all the inversions. Those being I and V in major and i and V in minor(and also vii°7 if you extend it to seventh chords). Other chords like IV or vi typically only get 2 of the 3 inversions and a few others like III typically aren't inverted at all. So to see all 3 inversions of what is supposedly III in Gm makes me doubt that it is in Gm at all and instead think that it is in Bb.
So am I right in saying that it starts in Bb and then pivots to Gm? Or is the expert right in saying that the entire passage from bar 57 is in Gm? Which one makes more sense harmonically speaking, my analysis or the expert's analysis?